SPC Outlooks Launched on Blogroll
Posted by ns62590 on March 30, 2008
As I promised, I have added the Day 1, 2, and 3 Severe Weather Outlooks to the blogroll today. Here’s a brief run-down of how this will work:
On the link, the first thing you will see is the day of the outlook. Next you will see the probability of severe weather for that day. Even if there is a higher risk somewhere in the country, the risk for the Mahoning Valley will be on the link. The following is the guide to understanding the risk.
General – This term is used when thunderstorms are a possibility in the forecast, but widespread severe weather is not expected. Needless to say, there may be an isolated severe cell, but nothing horrible is expected.
Slight- A slight risk is most commonly used when severe weather episodes are not expected, but some severe weather is a definite possibility. Many of the days when “slight” is issued, there aren’t many severe storms – but the storms that do hit those days do become somewhat dangerous. The actual term from the Storm Prediction Center is defined as a 15 – 29 percent chance of severe weather reports within 25 miles of a given point.
Moderate – Moderate risk means that there is a good chance that many locations in the area will experience a severe thunderstorm. The official definition is from 30 – 59% chance of severe weather reports within a 25 mile radius. If a moderate risk is issued, stay on high alert for severe weather that particular day.
High – High risk is when there is a greater than 60 percent chance of severe weather. High risk is only designated a few times in the course of a year, so if we are ever under this risk (which is extremely rare), it is very critical and dangerous weather is expected that particular day.
Use these outlooks to plan your day. Take all the tips from this past severe weather awareness week and use them to your advantage this severe weather season.
For your Sunday night, off and on showers are to be expected, but no heavy rain. Lows tonight will stay in the mid 40s. Showers will continue on Monday, with highs near 60. Yes – I just said SIXTY degrees. The rain won’t last all day, but it will be off and on. Have a great Monday everyone!!!
