Gustav May Pay Us a Visit

The remnants of what was Hurricane Gustav have merged with a cold front that will be heading in our direction for your Friday. This will allow for more cloudy conditions and possibly some rainfall tomorrow. After the passage of the front, much more pleasant temperatures will be in store. Looking at next week’s forecast, most of the days won’t be out of the 70s, which is closer to our average. Here in Youngstown, the average high for the first week of September is between 74 and 76 degrees, so we will be much closer to that next week, since our highs this week have been in the upper 80s. So even though it will be a rather gloomy one, enjoy your Friday everyone!

My Attention’s on Ike

Tropical Storm Hanna sure looks pathetic tonight as wind shear really has taken its toll on the storm. The center of circulation is largely exposed while most of the convection is off to the northwest of the center. Nevertheless, the storm has the potential to be a category one hurricane when it approaches the east coast of the US late Friday and Saturday morning, but we have a much larger threat to be worried about and that’s major category four Hurricane Ike.  While Ike, as I have said all week, will undergo fluctuations in intensity (and quite possibly weaken to a category 2 hurricane under some shear over the next 24 to 36 hours), is definitely going to be the topic of my blogs as we continue into this weekend. While the forecast track remains up in the air, this could be a serious threat so persons in the south Florida area and folks northward should begin going over evacuation routes and get disaster supply kits ready now before you are told to do so. The official track for Ike is shown on the National Hurricane Center’s website link found on the blogroll, however one must not focus on the exact landfall location but the cone as well since it is still 4 and 5 days out.

Hurricane Watches Posted for East Coast

As Tropical Storm Hanna strengthens to winds of 70 mph, hurricane watches have been issued for the east coast of the United States. As of 8am, a hurricane watch is in effect from Surf City, NC southward to Edisto Beach, SC with a tropical storm watch south of that from Edisto Beach, SC to Altamaha Sound, GA. While Hanna looks very desperate on satellite appearance this morning, with very little thunderstorm activity around the center, NOAA hurricane planes reported a pressure of 989 millibars and winds just shy of hurricane force. While upper level wind shear is expected to keep the storm in check, only a small increase in the winds will bring Hanna to hurricane strength.

Hurricane Ike has continued to strengthen overnight and now has winds of 145 mph. While hurricanes of this intensity can’t keep their strength too long, Ike is expected to remain at least a category 3 hurricane for the next 5 days. Hurricanes this powerful go through what meteorologists refer to as ‘eye-wall replacement cycles’ which allow storms to weaken while a new eye wall forms, then the storms intensify again. We anticipate Ike to go through a few of these cycles as it passes across the Atlantic. The Bahamas may feel the impacts of this monster as we head towards the weekend. We will keep you posted.