NWS Issues Stern Warning

You know Hurricane Ike will be dangerous when you hear this coming from the National Weather Service: “If you ignore the evacuations, you will face certain death” While Hurricane Ike will probably only be a category two hurricane at landfall, as I have been stressing all day, the storm’s large size will create a dangerous storm surge potential. This seems to be the worst impact. Ike has already grown larger than Hurricane Katrina, and this could be a devastating storm. Looking at the predicted path, Ike may go very close to Galveston and the surrounding Bay areas. The storm surge potential indicated by the recent National Hurricane Center shows that 20 to 25 feet of water may go into Galveston or surrounding areas. Stay tuned to Youngstown WeatherWATCH, as we are in stormwarning mode keeping you ahead of this dangerous and large storm.

Large Ike Will Be Dangerous

Although Hurricane Ike is not yet a major hurricane, it has the potential to be. As of 5pm, the watches and warnings from my previous entry have not changed, and neither has the intensity. Winds remain 100 mph and the pressure is 950 millibars. However, people shouldn’t focus on the actual intensity of Ike. The storm is so expansive in size that it will affect a larger than normal area. Also, there will be a large storm surge with this hurricane, as water rises of 6 feet have already been reported as far away from the storm as coastal Louisiana at 6 feet. However, when Ike comes ashore early Saturday morning, storm surge could be as high as 20 feet. Recall that the storm surge, not as much winds, was the big killer in Hurricane Katrina in 2005.

Ike still has the potential to become a major category three hurricane before it makes landfall in Texas. However, the storm’s large size has kept the storm’s intensity in check. Most of the models bring Ike in as either a strong category 2 but it certainly could be a category three when it makes landfall. If the wind field and eye can contract a little bit, the storm certainly may strengthen. Reports from a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft flying into the hurricane indicate that the storm, which once had 2 centers has now become one large center. Now that this has occurred, it may be able to strengthen tomorrow. However, as I recalled earlier, other impacts may be worse, such as heavy rains as well as very high waves and a large storm surge. I will post the next update on Ike at 11pm tonight.

I have the blog in StormWARNING mode as hurricane Ike progresses closer to landfall. I have links in the Hurricane Ike page as well as on the blogroll. Please look to them as they are very useful.

Ike Growing in Size; Not Strength

Hurricane Ike remains a large hurricane, as the wind field has continued to expand (TS force winds extending 275 miles from the center), but remains a category two hurricane with winds of 100 mph. However, hurricane warnings have been issued for the Gulf Coast from Morgan City, LA westward to Baffin Bay, TX. Also, tropical storm warnings are in effect from Morgan City, LA to the Mississippi/Alabama border as well as from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield, TX where a hurricane watch is in effect as well. The pressure of Ike is 952 millibars.