East Coast Double Trouble

A large subtropical area of low pressure is centered 180 miles east-southeast of the South/North Carolina border is causing a lot of problems from coastal Virgina southward to Florida, in terms of large waves and rip currents, as well as a lot of rain for the Carolinas and Virginia. The storm will move just inland somewhere over North Carolina tomorrow, and then ride up the Eastern Seaboard over the weekend, bringing the rainy, windy, and rough sea conditions along with it. Meanwhile, the area of low pressure we have been monitoring near the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico has drifted northward and is now located just east of the Bahamas, but is being sheared by the large subtropical storm to the north. As the subtropical system moves away, less shear may create a chance for this storm to develop, but until it does, it will just bring more showers and storms to the Bahamas. This storm will also move north towards the East Coast, maybe near Cape Cod or the New England area towards Saturday or Sunday.

I am using a term that I haven’t used much this year, and that is the word “subtropical.” Let me go into a little bit of detail about what a subtropical system is. When we refer to a tropical cyclone, it is an area of low pressure in which strong winds are tightly wrapped around the center, and the winds gradually lessen as you get farther away from the center. Subtropical systems are very large storms, referred to as “cold-core.” Subtropical systems have an area of low pressure as a center of circulation, but as you get farther from the center, winds increase; opposite that of a tropical system. Usually, there is not a lot of rain with subtropical systems. Tropical cyclones often bring with them lots of rain, often dumping over a foot of rain to an area depending on how fast they move. Still, subtropical storms have limited moisture, and usually only dump a few inches of rain on a given area. Where the system organizes is also what sometimes defines the storm as subtropical or tropical. Storms that organize in the tropical areas of the Atlantic ocean are tropical, and storms that organize north of the normal “tropical” regions are classified as subtropical. Therefore, since the low pressure system just east of the Carolinas is north of the typical tropical regions, it has maintained a subtropical appearance. Sometimes these subtropical systems do transition into tropical cyclones, however. Now there are other classifications that distinguish tropical and subtropical cyclones, but these are the major ones. Hopefully, you have a better idea of what a subtropical system now.

Still Nice

Thursday will be yet another beautiful day across Northern Ohio as highs will be around 76 degrees under partly cloudy skies. We may run into some light showers Friday and Saturday, but no major heavy rain is expected for a few days. Enjoy the weather now, next week will be cloudier and cooler.

Another Flood Event for Caribbean

Tropical Storm Fay and Hurricane Gustav brought extensive flooding to the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico. The disturbance I’ve been talking about still has not become a tropical cyclone, but is an area of low pressure with a lot of rain and has been another flood concern for the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico and the other islands of the Northern Caribbean. The system is stationary, or not moving, and will continue to dump copious amounts of rain over these areas. Current forecasts are that the low will finally begin to move a little bit northward over the next 24 to 30 hours. While this may be good news for the Caribbean, it will be worse news from the tropical standpoint, as conditions would favor this low to then become more organized and perhaps a tropical depression or even a tropical storm. Keep it here for the latest information.

2nd Severe Season

Since our weather here in the Mahoning Valley will be characterized by sunny skies and temperatures in the upper 70s over the next few days, let me go into a little detail tonight about our extended forecasts. Fall started this morning at 11:44 am. Recall springtime for a second. A lot of severe weather tends to occur in the Spring because the air is getting warmer, and the contrast between the cool winter air leaving and the hot summer air entering brings strong thunderstorms and severe weather. Now as we begin fall, another (albeit less sharper) contrast of air masses brings out a second severe weather season. The jet stream will now begin to work farther south over our area, and if other circumstances are right, severe weather can still occur over northern Ohio. This post comes out at a perfect time as severe thunderstorms raged across the central plains this afternoon and evening. So, through it all, continue to rely on Youngstown WeatherWATCH as we keep you ahead of all and any storms over our great valley, and any other tropical systems that may form this year.

No Kyle…..Yet

The area of disturbed weather located in the northeastern Caribbean Sea and south of Puerto Rico is continuing to improve in organization. However, the hurricane hunters who investigated the system today found no actual closed low pressure circulation. Therefore it is not deemed a tropical depression. However, winds to near tropical storm force were reported at flight level, so it has some qualities of a tropical cyclone. But until it can gather a closed circulation, it cannot be an official tropical depression or storm.

This all being said, upper level environment conditions in the Caribbean Sea and western Atlantic (where the storm may be headed) are improving and will be favorable for further development of this low. Persons along the East Coast need to review tropical weather plans, should this storm head towards this way over the next week. However, this storm is moving very slow and no impacts to the mainland US are expected any time soon. Regardless of development, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands will be receiving large amounts of rain, which can lead to flooding and mudslides. Keep it here for the latest on this developing situation.

Caribbean Depression????

I emphasize the question mark for the title because development in the Caribbean Sea is only possibleover the next few days. The area of disturbed weather that was located over the Lesser Antilles last night is over the Eastern Caribbean Sea south of Puerto Rico, but still is producing showers and windy conditions over the Antilles. This area has become somewhat better organized during the day today, and the upper level wind shear is beginning to relax over the area. There may be some slow development of the system, and it could be come a tropical depression tomorrow. The NOAA hurricane hunters are on standby to investigate this system tomorrow if it becomes necessary. I will provide an update tomorrow evening on this system.

Perfect Weekend

This is the last weekend of summer, and the weather is going to be absolutely perfect! Sunny skies are expected both days of your weekend. Temperatures today will be around 78 and a little cooler for your Sunday, around 73. Nighttime lows will be in the 50s, perfect for sleeping. This high pressure will remain over us for probably at least the next 5 days, if not 7 days. Your first week of Fall will bring temperatures in the 70s most of the afternoons, and temperatures in the low 50s and upper 40s at night, just about what we would expect this time of year. Have a great weekend everyone!

Watching the Caribbean

There have been a few thunderstorm clusters that have developed in both the western and another in the eastern Caribbean Sea. Currently, both of these areas are under a lot of wind shear. Therefore, development is not expected in the near term. However, towards the end of the weekend and early next week, some relaxation of this wind shear is possible allowing for some slow development. The area of most concern is the one near the Antilles. Some rain and wind have been affecting the islands today, and, while most of the shower activity has shifted east into the open Atlantic tonight, it will need to be monitored for signs of organization slowly over the next several days. We will keep our eyes on it.

Striking pictures of Ike

I got this email from a friend of mine tonight that showed some absolutely amazing pictures of the devastation from Hurricane Ike, just one week ago. Still, millions of people in the 1600 miles of Ike’s furious path across the US, from Texas to New England, are without power and it will take weeks, months, and years to fully recover from this disaster. I have provided the link to the page that my friend sent me tonight. Look at these pictures. These truly show the fury of hurricanes. Feel free to comment what you think about these striking images of Ike’s path of fury.

http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2008/09/the_short_but_eventful_life_of.html?s_campaign=8315

Another Nice Night

Temperatures will be perfectly comfortable for sleeping tonight as lows go down to near 50. For your Thursday, sunny skies and temperatures right under 70 degrees will be the highlights of the day. Have a great Thursday!